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Writer's pictureDaniel Tonetti

I've being asked if the VIX is broken... my views...

It's important to understand that the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It's often referred to as the "fear gauge" because it tends to rise when the market is experiencing increased uncertainty, risk, and volatility.


I like this site https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed a lot. It shows not only the VIX but other fear/greed indexes.


However it has being shown low volatile while market is going a bit erratic, the VIX index itself is not broken. It's simply a mathematical calculation based on the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. When the VIX is low, it means that the market expects relatively low volatility in the near future, and when it's high, it means that the market expects more significant price swings. Maybe, that's why we see some high frequency changes on the expected volatility.


It's possible for the VIX to remain low even when the market is experiencing high levels of volatility. This could occur if the market expects volatility to decrease in the future, or if the volatility is occurring in sectors or stocks that are not well-represented in the S&P 500 index. The late being in my opinion what is going on right now.


Additionally, there could be other factors at play, such as changes in market liquidity or shifts in investor sentiment. Has the latest central bank rates increase drawn out of the market enough liquidity to lower volatility?


So, the VIX is not broken, but it's important to understand that it's just one tool used to measure market volatility and should be used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis.



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